Assessing the productivity of maize in Moldova in the context of climate change

Abstract

The present study provides a comprehensive assessment of maize productivity under climate variability in the Republic of Moldova, based on research conducted in 2024 at "Garma GRUP" LLC, Firladeni village, Hincesti district. The investigation focused on grain and silage yields, soil physical and chemical characteristics, water availability, and the applied technological model. Particular attention was given to soil bulk density and moisture reserves, as these parameters are critical determinants of crop performance under increasingly frequent drought and heat stress events associated with climate change. The results revealed that the bulk density of carbonatic sandy-loam chernozem ranged between 1.15 and 1.26 g/cm³, while ordinary clay-loam chernozem showed higher variability, from 1.05 to 1.38 g/cm³. Excessive soil compaction was detected in the 30-40 cm horizon, exceeding optimal thresholds for root development and water infiltration. At planting, available soil moisture reserves were relatively modest, measured at 71.18 mm for ordinary chernozem and 67.15 mm for carbonatic chernozem. By the time of harvest, these values had decreased sharply to 31.27 mm and 27.37 mm, respectively, reflecting a significant water deficit throughout the growing season. Biological indicators of crop establishment demonstrated high germination potential (91.8-95.1%), but survival rates were considerably lower (60.4-80.8%), highlighting the stress conditions affecting maize plants during critical growth stages. Even under supplementary irrigation, green biomass production remained unsatisfactory, ranging only from 47 to 54 t/ha. This underperformance suggests that current irrigation strategies and technological measures are insufficient to fully mitigate the effects of soil degradation and water scarcity. These findings underscore the vulnerability of Moldovan maize production systems to climate-induced stresses and emphasize the urgent need for adaptive strategies, including soil conservation practices, optimized irrigation management, and the introduction of drought-tolerant hybrids. The study contributes to a better understanding of the interactions between soil quality, water availability, and crop productivity, offering valuable insights for researchers, policymakers, and farmers aiming to enhance resilience and sustainability in the national agricultural sector.